Model line
The Citadel −1.0
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
The Citadel 54%
Projected tempo
70.1
possessions
Site
The Citadel home
46%Win probability54%
The model makes The Citadel a 1.0-point favorite, winning about 54 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Mercer offense vs The Citadel defense
| Mercer O | Stat | The Citadel D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#114 | Tempo | #33464.8 |
| 53.1#99 | eFG% | #36157.5 |
| 15.0#63 | TOV% | #31114.7 |
| 32.6#100 | ORB% | #22831.5 |
| 39.2#76 | FT rate | #13533.3 |
| 8.1#66 | Block% | #2737.8 |
| 46.2#314 | Assist% | #17552.2 |
| 53.0#128 | 2P% | #36359.6 |
| 35.6#81 | 3P% | #33536.6 |
| 73.0#169 | FT% | — |
| 39.2#186 | 3PA rate | #4444.1 |
The Citadel offense vs Mercer defense
| The Citadel O | Stat | Mercer D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.8#334 | Tempo | #11469.5 |
| 49.5#269 | eFG% | #24152.5 |
| 16.3#157 | TOV% | #15317.0 |
| 27.9#272 | ORB% | #30333.2 |
| 30.0#312 | FT rate | #5429.7 |
| 10.7#288 | Block% | #1799.2 |
| 50.6#231 | Assist% | #4446.8 |
| 51.0#214 | 2P% | #15651.3 |
| 32.0#282 | 3P% | #31336.2 |
| 66.5#349 | FT% | — |
| 47.8#27 | 3PA rate | #9442.1 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Mercer
| Mon, Nov 2 | H | Reinhardt | W 90–53 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Western Carolina184 | L 73–77 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | East Tennessee St.175 | W 82–76 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Western Carolina184 | L 74–78 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Samford206 | W 89–86 |
The Citadel
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | East Tennessee St.175 | L 76–83 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Chattanooga274 | W 88–85 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Wofford276 | W 93–90 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Furman147 | L 51–72 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Chattanooga274 | L 72–93 |
