2025–26 model evaluation

Model Performance

How far the predicted margin landed from the final margin, game by game.

MAE

7.96

points per game

RMSE

10.23

points

Winner accuracy

78%

picked the right winner

Games graded

4,921

2025–26 season

By week

Weeks run Monday through Sunday.

Week of	Games	MAE	RMSE	Accuracy
Mon, Nov 3	196	8.32	10.53	87%
Mon, Nov 10	277	7.33	9.50	85%
Mon, Nov 17	240	7.99	10.44	84%
Mon, Nov 24	154	8.63	11.44	81%
Mon, Dec 1	287	8.25	10.58	79%
Mon, Dec 8	164	8.20	10.53	84%
Mon, Dec 15	234	8.04	10.35	82%
Mon, Dec 22	72	8.91	10.92	86%
Mon, Dec 29	367	7.63	9.85	78%
Mon, Jan 5	342	7.80	10.15	75%
Mon, Jan 12	325	8.02	10.20	73%
Mon, Jan 19	338	7.75	10.06	75%
Mon, Jan 26	337	8.59	10.65	72%
Mon, Feb 2	337	7.31	9.30	77%
Mon, Feb 9	336	7.95	10.19	74%
Mon, Feb 16	347	7.67	9.62	74%
Mon, Feb 23	343	8.19	10.48	74%
Mon, Mar 2	222	8.31	10.93	78%
Mon, Mar 9	3	3.96	5.34	100%

Hits are the predictions closest to the final margin; misses are the farthest off.

Game	Actual	Model
Iona222 Manhattan331Sun, Mar 1	Iona by 4.0	Iona by 4.0
Pacific141 Air Force279Wed, Dec 3	Pacific by 15.0	Pacific by 15.0
Fairfield231 Siena271Mon, Jan 19	Siena by 8.0	Siena by 8.0
North Carolina A&T300 South Carolina91Tue, Nov 4	South Carolina by 19.0	South Carolina by 19.0
Washington St.131 San Francisco165Sun, Jan 18	San Francisco by 5.0	San Francisco by 5.0
Clemson44 Syracuse76Wed, Dec 31	Clemson by 3.0	Clemson by 3.0
Long Beach St.264 San Jose St.161Tue, Dec 9	San Jose St. by 6.0	San Jose St. by 6.0
Florida St.64 Pittsburgh79Wed, Mar 4	Florida St. by 1.0	Florida St. by 1.0
UNC Greensboro289 VMI344Wed, Jan 21	UNC Greensboro by 7.0	UNC Greensboro by 7.0
Southeast Missouri266 Iowa41Tue, Nov 18	Iowa by 29.0	Iowa by 29.0

Game	Actual	Model
NC State54 Florida St.64Sat, Jan 10	NC State by 44.0	Florida St. by 3.5
Creighton36 Xavier45Wed, Dec 17	Creighton by 41.0	Xavier by 2.6
Elon233 Appalachian St.234Mon, Nov 24	Elon by 35.0	Appalachian St. by 6.6
Louisiana Tech282 Delaware258Sat, Mar 7	Louisiana Tech by 43.0	Louisiana Tech by 2.5
Iona222 Marist257Sun, Jan 4	Marist by 45.0	Marist by 6.3
Louisiana Monroe341 Marshall241Thu, Jan 22	Marshall by 55.0	Marshall by 17.1
Coastal Carolina240 Illinois St.116Sun, Nov 23	Illinois St. by 52.0	Illinois St. by 14.8
Ball St.220 Northern Illinois278Sat, Feb 28	Ball St. by 36.0	Northern Illinois by 0.1
Georgia St.205 South Dakota St.237Fri, Nov 21	South Dakota St. by 47.0	South Dakota St. by 10.9
Georgia40 Florida St.64Tue, Dec 2	Georgia by 34.0	Florida St. by 1.8