Model line
Valparaiso −0.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Valparaiso 53%
Projected tempo
69.8
possessions
Site
Neutral
47%Win probability53%
The model makes Valparaiso a 0.8-point favorite, winning about 53 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Troy offense vs Valparaiso defense
| Troy O | Stat | Valparaiso D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.8#253 | Tempo | #29366.1 |
| 51.5#173 | eFG% | #13050.5 |
| 17.3#224 | TOV% | #16316.9 |
| 34.6#58 | ORB% | #16930.1 |
| 36.2#145 | FT rate | #18235.1 |
| 10.9#296 | Block% | #14310.0 |
| 57.5#64 | Assist% | #10949.8 |
| 53.2#125 | 2P% | #19151.9 |
| 33.0#232 | 3P% | #6932.1 |
| 74.2#122 | FT% | — |
| 45.9#49 | 3PA rate | #26337.0 |
Valparaiso offense vs Troy defense
| Valparaiso O | Stat | Troy D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.1#293 | Tempo | #25366.8 |
| 47.6#325 | eFG% | #11350.2 |
| 15.7#117 | TOV% | #17516.7 |
| 32.5#109 | ORB% | #24331.7 |
| 39.1#80 | FT rate | #9531.4 |
| 8.5#106 | Block% | #2039.0 |
| 48.8#271 | Assist% | #11450.0 |
| 45.8#349 | 2P% | #19652.0 |
| 33.9#182 | 3P% | #5231.6 |
| 70.9#242 | FT% | — |
| 36.8#235 | 3PA rate | #19439.1 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Troy
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Nebraska19 | L 47–76 |
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Georgia Southern307 | W 77–61 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Southern Miss236 | W 78–70 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Louisiana Monroe341 | W 80–65 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | H | Louisiana215 | W 78–59 |
Valparaiso
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Bradley183 | L 84–90 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Indiana St.212 | W 63–62 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Evansville273 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Drake137 | W 74–71 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Illinois Chicago105 | W 71–67 |
