Model line
Valparaiso −7.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Valparaiso 79%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
Valparaiso home
21%Win probability79%
The model makes Valparaiso a 7.7-point favorite, winning about 79 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Toledo offense vs Valparaiso defense
| Toledo O | Stat | Valparaiso D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #29366.1 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #13050.5 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #16316.9 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #16930.1 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #18235.1 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #14310.0 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #10949.8 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #19151.9 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #6932.1 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #26337.0 |
Valparaiso offense vs Toledo defense
| Valparaiso O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.1#293 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 47.6#325 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 15.7#117 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 32.5#109 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 39.1#80 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 8.5#106 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 48.8#271 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 45.8#349 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 33.9#182 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 70.9#242 | FT% | — |
| 36.8#235 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
Valparaiso
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Bradley183 | L 84–90 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Indiana St.212 | W 63–62 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Evansville273 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Drake137 | W 74–71 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Illinois Chicago105 | W 71–67 |
