Model line
Toledo −0.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Toledo 53%
Projected tempo
71.1
possessions
Site
Detroit Mercy home
53%Win probability48%
The model makes Toledo a 0.6-point favorite, winning about 53 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Toledo offense vs Detroit Mercy defense
| Toledo O | Stat | Detroit Mercy D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #10169.7 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #22652.2 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #32414.4 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #19230.8 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #25337.6 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #1659.5 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #32458.3 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #26753.8 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #13833.3 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #7942.6 |
Detroit Mercy offense vs Toledo defense
| Detroit Mercy O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.7#101 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 49.5#264 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 16.0#137 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 33.3#82 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 32.6#248 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 7.9#50 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 48.5#276 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 48.1#304 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 35.1#106 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 78.9#4 | FT% | — |
| 30.7#343 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
Detroit Mercy
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Wright St.150 | L 63–66 |
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Robert Morris163 | W 70–64 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Milwaukee247 | W 84–63 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Oakland208 | W 95–89 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Robert Morris163 | L 62–73 |
