Model line
Memphis −4.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Memphis 68%
Projected tempo
72.2
possessions
Site
UTSA home
68%Win probability32%
The model makes Memphis a 4.5-point favorite, winning about 68 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Memphis offense vs UTSA defense
| Memphis O | Stat | UTSA D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.4#35 | Tempo | #11269.6 |
| 48.7#296 | eFG% | #27853.3 |
| 18.9#318 | TOV% | #31214.7 |
| 35.3#41 | ORB% | #36338.7 |
| 34.7#191 | FT rate | #13633.3 |
| 10.4#267 | Block% | #5411.9 |
| 49.8#245 | Assist% | #28156.0 |
| 49.4#274 | 2P% | #27153.8 |
| 31.6#301 | 3P% | #25335.1 |
| 72.1#205 | FT% | — |
| 33.7#303 | 3PA rate | #5943.3 |
UTSA offense vs Memphis defense
| UTSA O | Stat | Memphis D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.6#112 | Tempo | #3571.4 |
| 44.8#360 | eFG% | #5448.7 |
| 17.5#238 | TOV% | #7318.5 |
| 30.2#193 | ORB% | #35035.6 |
| 29.5#321 | FT rate | #32942.4 |
| 13.1#358 | Block% | #3212.7 |
| 42.8#351 | Assist% | #24454.7 |
| 45.5#353 | 2P% | #13751.0 |
| 29.2#351 | 3P% | #2330.5 |
| 69.8#276 | FT% | — |
| 41.3#144 | 3PA rate | #6343.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Memphis
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Tulane153 | L 69–81 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Tulane153 | W 96–95 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | H | South Florida92 | L 89–96 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | East Carolina185 | L 68–84 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | Wichita St.80 | L 82–88 |
UTSA
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Rice235 | L 71–80 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Wichita St.80 | L 67–84 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | East Carolina185 | L 81–82 |
| Sun, Feb 22 | A | Tulsa104 | L 74–100 |
| Wed, Feb 18 | H | Florida Atlantic118 | L 52–60 |
