Model line
Drake −10.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Drake 87%
Projected tempo
70.9
possessions
Site
Drake home
13%Win probability87%
The model makes Drake a 10.9-point favorite, winning about 87 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Tarleton St. offense vs Drake defense
| Tarleton St. O | Stat | Drake D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.2#87 | Tempo | #21067.8 |
| 48.3#307 | eFG% | #24452.6 |
| 20.0#348 | TOV% | #31514.6 |
| 31.5#143 | ORB% | #15329.9 |
| 41.9#33 | FT rate | #10332.0 |
| 9.6#203 | Block% | #2268.5 |
| 41.7#355 | Assist% | #24654.8 |
| 48.2#303 | 2P% | #14651.1 |
| 32.5#257 | 3P% | #32036.4 |
| 74.2#121 | FT% | — |
| 24.2#365 | 3PA rate | #5643.3 |
Drake offense vs Tarleton St. defense
| Drake O | Stat | Tarleton St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.8#210 | Tempo | #8770.2 |
| 51.4#175 | eFG% | #29053.6 |
| 15.0#59 | TOV% | #323.4 |
| 26.6#308 | ORB% | #34035.1 |
| 33.5#222 | FT rate | #35947.7 |
| 8.6#108 | Block% | #1599.7 |
| 51.6#198 | Assist% | #26955.5 |
| 51.7#182 | 2P% | #29354.4 |
| 34.0#170 | 3P% | #24234.9 |
| 71.4#224 | FT% | — |
| 45.7#52 | 3PA rate | #13840.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Tarleton St.
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Abilene Christian242 | L 78–84 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | H | UT Arlington232 | L 60–65 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Cal Baptist216 | L 67–82 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | A | Utah Valley120 | L 72–79 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Utah Tech254 | L 72–80 |
Drake
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Illinois Chicago105 | L 51–72 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Belmont130 | W 100–79 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Southern Illinois172 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Northern Iowa129 | L 53–75 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Valparaiso142 | L 71–74 |
