Model line
Dayton −5.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Dayton 72%
Projected tempo
70.8
possessions
Site
Dayton home
28%Win probability72%
The model makes Dayton a 5.6-point favorite, winning about 72 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
VCU offense vs Dayton defense
| VCU O | Stat | Dayton D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.2#138 | Tempo | #21267.7 |
| 53.6#84 | eFG% | #14450.8 |
| 15.1#74 | TOV% | #1120.9 |
| 31.6#141 | ORB% | #12029.2 |
| 42.0#31 | FT rate | #18835.3 |
| 8.9#141 | Block% | #5012.0 |
| 51.9#193 | Assist% | #12750.6 |
| 53.0#131 | 2P% | #7049.3 |
| 36.3#47 | 3P% | #27035.4 |
| 73.6#151 | FT% | — |
| 43.8#97 | 3PA rate | #13040.9 |
Dayton offense vs VCU defense
| Dayton O | Stat | VCU D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#212 | Tempo | #13869.2 |
| 52.2#135 | eFG% | #7049.0 |
| 17.1#207 | TOV% | #15917.0 |
| 26.9#301 | ORB% | #16230.0 |
| 46.7#1 | FT rate | #12932.8 |
| 11.5#327 | Block% | #8111.2 |
| 59.4#39 | Assist% | #14050.8 |
| 52.4#151 | 2P% | #5748.7 |
| 34.5#149 | 3P% | #12133.0 |
| 75.4#68 | FT% | — |
| 41.5#141 | 3PA rate | #31635.1 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
VCU
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Illinois7 | L 55–76 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Carolina39 | W 82–78 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Dayton67 | W 70–62 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Saint Joseph's125 | W 77–64 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Duquesne128 | W 71–66 |
Dayton
| Wed, Mar 25 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 55–61 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | A | UNC Wilmington107 | W 80–61 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | A | Bradley183 | W 80–66 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | VCU53 | L 62–70 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 70–69 |
