Model line
Dayton −13.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Dayton 92%
Projected tempo
69.8
possessions
Site
Dayton home
8%Win probability92%
The model makes Dayton a 13.5-point favorite, winning about 92 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Richmond offense vs Dayton defense
| Richmond O | Stat | Dayton D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.5#173 | Tempo | #21267.7 |
| 52.7#116 | eFG% | #14450.8 |
| 14.3#33 | TOV% | #1120.9 |
| 25.0#340 | ORB% | #12029.2 |
| 36.9#134 | FT rate | #18835.3 |
| 7.7#41 | Block% | #5012.0 |
| 54.5#127 | Assist% | #12750.6 |
| 50.5#238 | 2P% | #7049.3 |
| 37.1#27 | 3P% | #27035.4 |
| 75.2#75 | FT% | — |
| 42.6#125 | 3PA rate | #13040.9 |
Dayton offense vs Richmond defense
| Dayton O | Stat | Richmond D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#212 | Tempo | #17368.5 |
| 52.2#135 | eFG% | #21452.0 |
| 17.1#207 | TOV% | #11517.7 |
| 26.9#301 | ORB% | #20331.0 |
| 46.7#1 | FT rate | #18135.1 |
| 11.5#327 | Block% | #3027.3 |
| 59.4#39 | Assist% | #7148.2 |
| 52.4#151 | 2P% | #29954.5 |
| 34.5#149 | 3P% | #10232.7 |
| 75.4#68 | FT% | — |
| 41.5#141 | 3PA rate | #2645.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Richmond
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Loyola Chicago151 | L 67–75 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Duquesne128 | L 77–79 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Dayton67 | L 60–65 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Loyola Chicago151 | L 66–69 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | St. Bonaventure158 | W 99–94 |
Dayton
| Wed, Mar 25 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 55–61 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | A | UNC Wilmington107 | W 80–61 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | A | Bradley183 | W 80–66 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | VCU53 | L 62–70 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 70–69 |
