Model line
Saint Louis −9.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Saint Louis 85%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
Saint Louis home
16%Win probability85%
The model makes Saint Louis a 9.6-point favorite, winning about 85 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Dayton offense vs Saint Louis defense
| Dayton O | Stat | Saint Louis D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#212 | Tempo | #2372.1 |
| 52.2#135 | eFG% | #445.2 |
| 17.1#207 | TOV% | #22615.9 |
| 26.9#301 | ORB% | #4427.2 |
| 46.7#1 | FT rate | #24237.1 |
| 11.5#327 | Block% | #1699.5 |
| 59.4#39 | Assist% | #15751.4 |
| 52.4#151 | 2P% | #845.1 |
| 34.5#149 | 3P% | #1530.3 |
| 75.4#68 | FT% | — |
| 41.5#141 | 3PA rate | #9741.9 |
Saint Louis offense vs Dayton defense
| Saint Louis O | Stat | Dayton D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.1#23 | Tempo | #21267.7 |
| 59.7#2 | eFG% | #14450.8 |
| 17.2#219 | TOV% | #1120.9 |
| 30.7#174 | ORB% | #12029.2 |
| 33.7#221 | FT rate | #18835.3 |
| 11.2#318 | Block% | #5012.0 |
| 60.4#28 | Assist% | #12750.6 |
| 59.5#11 | 2P% | #7049.3 |
| 39.9#2 | 3P% | #27035.4 |
| 74.1#130 | FT% | — |
| 45.1#65 | 3PA rate | #13040.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Dayton
| Wed, Mar 25 | H | Illinois St.116 | L 55–61 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | A | UNC Wilmington107 | W 80–61 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | A | Bradley183 | W 80–66 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | VCU53 | L 62–70 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 70–69 |
Saint Louis
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan24 | L 72–95 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Georgia40 | W 102–77 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Dayton67 | L 69–70 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | George Washington103 | W 88–81 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | George Mason98 | L 57–86 |
