Model line
UNC Wilmington −10.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
UNC Wilmington 86%
Projected tempo
69.2
possessions
Site
UNC Wilmington home
14%Win probability86%
The model makes UNC Wilmington a 10.2-point favorite, winning about 86 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Valparaiso offense vs UNC Wilmington defense
| Valparaiso O | Stat | UNC Wilmington D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.1#293 | Tempo | #29266.1 |
| 47.6#325 | eFG% | #3547.5 |
| 15.7#117 | TOV% | #29914.9 |
| 32.5#109 | ORB% | #5227.6 |
| 39.1#80 | FT rate | #10031.7 |
| 8.5#106 | Block% | #3037.3 |
| 48.8#271 | Assist% | #6747.9 |
| 45.8#349 | 2P% | #9049.7 |
| 33.9#182 | 3P% | #629.7 |
| 70.9#242 | FT% | — |
| 36.8#235 | 3PA rate | #8242.6 |
UNC Wilmington offense vs Valparaiso defense
| UNC Wilmington O | Stat | Valparaiso D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.1#292 | Tempo | #29366.1 |
| 50.4#223 | eFG% | #13050.5 |
| 14.8#57 | TOV% | #16316.9 |
| 35.3#44 | ORB% | #16930.1 |
| 40.4#56 | FT rate | #18235.1 |
| 7.9#56 | Block% | #14310.0 |
| 51.7#196 | Assist% | #10949.8 |
| 49.1#282 | 2P% | #19151.9 |
| 35.0#123 | 3P% | #6932.1 |
| 68.7#306 | FT% | — |
| 38.8#195 | 3PA rate | #26337.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Valparaiso
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Bradley183 | L 84–90 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Indiana St.212 | W 63–62 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Evansville273 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Drake137 | W 74–71 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Illinois Chicago105 | W 71–67 |
UNC Wilmington
| Sat, Mar 21 | H | Dayton67 | L 61–80 |
| Tue, Mar 17 | A | Yale145 | W 68–67 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Campbell260 | L 70–85 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Elon233 | W 76–57 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Charleston133 | L 76–79 |
