Model line
USC −24.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
USC 100%
Projected tempo
71.8
possessions
Site
USC home
1%Win probability100%
The model makes USC a 24.6-point favorite, winning about 100 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Tarleton St. offense vs USC defense
| Tarleton St. O | Stat | USC D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.2#87 | Tempo | #5471.0 |
| 48.3#307 | eFG% | #8849.7 |
| 20.0#348 | TOV% | #20316.3 |
| 31.5#143 | ORB% | #27032.2 |
| 41.9#33 | FT rate | #13833.4 |
| 9.6#203 | Block% | #1214.9 |
| 41.7#355 | Assist% | #22854.1 |
| 48.2#303 | 2P% | #19852.0 |
| 32.5#257 | 3P% | #3430.9 |
| 74.2#121 | FT% | — |
| 24.2#365 | 3PA rate | #14840.4 |
USC offense vs Tarleton St. defense
| USC O | Stat | Tarleton St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#54 | Tempo | #8770.2 |
| 50.4#224 | eFG% | #29053.6 |
| 17.4#232 | TOV% | #323.4 |
| 32.4#111 | ORB% | #34035.1 |
| 44.2#9 | FT rate | #35947.7 |
| 8.3#85 | Block% | #1599.7 |
| 56.5#81 | Assist% | #26955.5 |
| 51.8#179 | 2P% | #29354.4 |
| 31.7#299 | 3P% | #24234.9 |
| 72.6#183 | FT% | — |
| 34.1#292 | 3PA rate | #13840.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Tarleton St.
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Abilene Christian242 | L 78–84 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | H | UT Arlington232 | L 60–65 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Cal Baptist216 | L 67–82 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | A | Utah Valley120 | L 72–79 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Utah Tech254 | L 72–80 |
USC
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Washington78 | L 79–83 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | UCLA18 | L 68–89 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Washington78 | L 72–91 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Nebraska19 | L 67–82 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | UCLA18 | L 62–81 |
