Model line
Michigan St. −2.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan St. 61%
Projected tempo
71.2
possessions
Site
Neutral
39%Win probability61%
The model makes Michigan St. a 2.6-point favorite, winning about 61 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Arkansas offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Arkansas O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.7#13 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 56.5#17 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 12.2#1 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 32.1#120 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 35.8#160 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 6.4#8 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 53.4#154 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 55.8#44 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 38.7#9 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 75.0#79 | FT% | — |
| 32.9#316 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Michigan St. offense vs Arkansas defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Arkansas D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #1372.7 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #17751.4 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #24415.6 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #19831.0 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #6630.3 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #2313.1 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #10549.8 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #27654.0 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #4731.5 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #21038.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Arkansas
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Arizona5 | L 88–109 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | High Point61 | W 94–88 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Hawaii132 | W 97–78 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Vanderbilt21 | W 86–75 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Ole Miss49 | W 93–90 |
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
