Model line
Michigan St. −30.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan St. >99%
Projected tempo
70.5
possessions
Site
Michigan St. home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Michigan St. a 30.2-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Toledo offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Toledo O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Michigan St. offense vs Toledo defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
