Model line
Michigan −26.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan >99%
Projected tempo
71.3
possessions
Site
Michigan home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Michigan a 26.5-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Toledo offense vs Michigan defense
| Toledo O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5#117 | Tempo | #4171.3 |
| 54.5#53 | eFG% | #345.2 |
| 14.7#53 | TOV% | #26515.3 |
| 29.5#221 | ORB% | #4027.1 |
| 30.5#298 | FT rate | #1526.2 |
| 8.5#105 | Block% | #316.5 |
| 53.1#164 | Assist% | #5447.3 |
| 54.0#86 | 2P% | #444.5 |
| 37.0#29 | 3P% | #3130.8 |
| 75.4#69 | FT% | — |
| 32.5#324 | 3PA rate | #9242.2 |
Michigan offense vs Toledo defense
| Michigan O | Stat | Toledo D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#41 | Tempo | #11769.5 |
| 58.7#6 | eFG% | #30954.3 |
| 16.5#165 | TOV% | #10617.9 |
| 35.0#47 | ORB% | #31433.7 |
| 37.7#109 | FT rate | #1826.6 |
| 9.0#145 | Block% | #2747.8 |
| 61.1#25 | Assist% | #13950.8 |
| 61.5#2 | 2P% | #33156.1 |
| 36.6#36 | 3P% | #21434.4 |
| 74.7#94 | FT% | — |
| 41.7#140 | 3PA rate | #16240.0 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Toledo
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Akron100 | L 76–79 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Massachusetts166 | W 77–67 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Bowling Green192 | W 77–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | H | Buffalo191 | W 99–78 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Miami OH108 | L 72–74 |
Michigan
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut3 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona5 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee11 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama16 | W 90–77 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 95–72 |
