Model line
Southern −6.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Southern 76%
Projected tempo
71.5
possessions
Site
Southern home
24%Win probability76%
The model makes Southern a 6.7-point favorite, winning about 76 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Alabama St. offense vs Southern defense
| Alabama St. O | Stat | Southern D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#38 | Tempo | #3771.4 |
| 47.1#333 | eFG% | #27553.2 |
| 18.3#286 | TOV% | #6818.6 |
| 31.9#126 | ORB% | #21731.3 |
| 34.9#183 | FT rate | #33942.9 |
| 11.0#299 | Block% | #11010.6 |
| 47.6#293 | Assist% | #19652.8 |
| 46.8#333 | 2P% | #20152.1 |
| 31.8#285 | 3P% | #33736.7 |
| 70.5#253 | FT% | — |
| 38.5#200 | 3PA rate | #25137.5 |
Southern offense vs Alabama St. defense
| Southern O | Stat | Alabama St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.4#37 | Tempo | #3871.3 |
| 49.1#288 | eFG% | #22252.2 |
| 16.5#167 | TOV% | #6018.7 |
| 31.4#146 | ORB% | #22631.5 |
| 39.8#61 | FT rate | #32742.3 |
| 10.0#242 | Block% | #8811.0 |
| 52.6#178 | Assist% | #25355.0 |
| 47.7#318 | 2P% | #22752.8 |
| 34.8#131 | 3P% | #19334.2 |
| 69.5#284 | FT% | — |
| 32.1#328 | 3PA rate | #14640.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Alabama St.
| Mon, Mar 9 | N | Alcorn St.340 | L 65–77 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | H | Grambling St.326 | L 63–65 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Southern293 | L 64–71 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Alabama A&M313 | W 89–88 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Florida A&M317 | L 63–76 |
Southern
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Prairie View A&M301 | L 66–72 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Florida A&M317 | W 73–70 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Arkansas Pine Bluff360 | W 84–81 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | A | Alabama A&M313 | W 88–85 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Alabama St.295 | W 71–64 |
