Model line
Little Rock −11.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Little Rock 88%
Projected tempo
69.9
possessions
Site
Little Rock home
12%Win probability88%
The model makes Little Rock a 11.3-point favorite, winning about 88 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Northwestern St. offense vs Little Rock defense
| Northwestern St. O | Stat | Little Rock D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.2#329 | Tempo | #21967.6 |
| 48.6#301 | eFG% | #20051.8 |
| 18.3#288 | TOV% | #7218.5 |
| 26.1#320 | ORB% | #35736.6 |
| 40.1#58 | FT rate | #13433.1 |
| 9.6#200 | Block% | #3912.5 |
| 50.7#225 | Assist% | #21853.7 |
| 48.0#310 | 2P% | #18651.9 |
| 33.2#217 | 3P% | #21134.4 |
| 74.0#136 | FT% | — |
| 33.9#299 | 3PA rate | #15140.3 |
Little Rock offense vs Northwestern St. defense
| Little Rock O | Stat | Northwestern St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.6#219 | Tempo | #32965.2 |
| 49.4#271 | eFG% | #26953.0 |
| 18.4#290 | TOV% | #16116.9 |
| 31.5#142 | ORB% | #28532.6 |
| 27.7#345 | FT rate | #22236.3 |
| 5.6#1 | Block% | #3226.7 |
| 52.2#188 | Assist% | #16851.9 |
| 47.9#312 | 2P% | #23452.9 |
| 35.3#100 | 3P% | #28235.5 |
| 68.0#326 | FT% | — |
| 31.0#339 | 3PA rate | #24037.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Northwestern St.
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Nicholls St.287 | L 47–61 |
| Mon, Mar 2 | A | UT Rio Grande Valley251 | L 62–74 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Texas A&M Corpus Chris203 | L 59–71 |
| Mon, Feb 23 | H | Incarnate Word302 | W 54–49 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Houston Christian253 | W 71–53 |
Little Rock
| Wed, Mar 4 | N | Lindenwood303 | L 62–72 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Southern Indiana324 | W 89–70 |
| Thu, Feb 26 | H | Morehead St.329 | L 70–76 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | H | Southeast Missouri266 | L 65–70 |
| Thu, Feb 19 | H | Tennessee Martin312 | W 67–65 |
