Model line
Niagara −1.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Niagara 55%
Projected tempo
67.3
possessions
Site
Niagara home
45%Win probability55%
The model makes Niagara a 1.1-point favorite, winning about 55 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Merrimack offense vs Niagara defense
| Merrimack O | Stat | Niagara D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.8#358 | Tempo | #36463.1 |
| 49.1#287 | eFG% | #25952.8 |
| 14.8#55 | TOV% | #18116.6 |
| 24.8#343 | ORB% | #29532.9 |
| 38.2#96 | FT rate | #14533.8 |
| 13.0#355 | Block% | #2138.7 |
| 56.0#90 | Assist% | #18252.5 |
| 49.1#279 | 2P% | #22652.7 |
| 32.7#245 | 3P% | #26535.3 |
| 78.8#7 | FT% | — |
| 46.1#45 | 3PA rate | #14740.4 |
Niagara offense vs Merrimack defense
| Niagara O | Stat | Merrimack D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.1#364 | Tempo | #35863.8 |
| 50.5#215 | eFG% | #1746.7 |
| 18.9#319 | TOV% | #1720.4 |
| 24.8#344 | ORB% | #36539.9 |
| 26.6#354 | FT rate | #24037.1 |
| 9.7#212 | Block% | #1513.9 |
| 60.0#30 | Assist% | #29856.9 |
| 50.5#236 | 2P% | #3547.3 |
| 33.7#187 | 3P% | #1330.3 |
| 72.2#200 | FT% | — |
| 40.5#158 | 3PA rate | #35032.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Merrimack
| Mon, Nov 2 | N | Appalachian St.234 | L 49–63 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Siena271 | L 54–64 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Marist257 | W 58–57 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Sacred Heart310 | W 70–48 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Niagara318 | W 73–66 |
Niagara
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Merrimack211 | L 66–73 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Quinnipiac249 | W 78–76 |
| Sun, Feb 22 | A | Rider355 | L 62–67 |
| Fri, Feb 20 | A | Mount St. Mary's299 | L 63–76 |
| Sun, Feb 15 | H | Iona222 | W 70–68 |
