Model line
Merrimack −2.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Merrimack 61%
Projected tempo
68.3
possessions
Site
Rider home
61%Win probability39%
The model makes Merrimack a 2.8-point favorite, winning about 61 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Merrimack offense vs Rider defense
| Merrimack O | Stat | Rider D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.8#358 | Tempo | #30965.7 |
| 49.1#287 | eFG% | #33755.2 |
| 14.8#55 | TOV% | #26915.3 |
| 24.8#343 | ORB% | #29232.8 |
| 38.2#96 | FT rate | #11632.5 |
| 13.0#355 | Block% | #1769.3 |
| 56.0#90 | Assist% | #23754.4 |
| 49.1#279 | 2P% | #27954.0 |
| 32.7#245 | 3P% | #35637.9 |
| 78.8#7 | FT% | — |
| 46.1#45 | 3PA rate | #16539.9 |
Rider offense vs Merrimack defense
| Rider O | Stat | Merrimack D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.7#309 | Tempo | #35863.8 |
| 42.8#365 | eFG% | #1746.7 |
| 16.9#195 | TOV% | #1720.4 |
| 32.6#102 | ORB% | #36539.9 |
| 30.1#307 | FT rate | #24037.1 |
| 8.3#82 | Block% | #1513.9 |
| 44.3#342 | Assist% | #29856.9 |
| 43.3#362 | 2P% | #3547.3 |
| 27.7#365 | 3P% | #1330.3 |
| 70.1#272 | FT% | — |
| 27.5#361 | 3PA rate | #35032.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Merrimack
| Mon, Nov 2 | N | Appalachian St.234 | L 49–63 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Siena271 | L 54–64 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Marist257 | W 58–57 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Sacred Heart310 | W 70–48 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Niagara318 | W 73–66 |
Rider
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Siena271 | L 61–76 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | A | Iona222 | L 58–80 |
| Sun, Feb 22 | H | Niagara318 | W 67–62 |
| Fri, Feb 20 | H | Canisius339 | L 66–72 |
| Sun, Feb 15 | A | Sacred Heart310 | L 75–86 |
