Model line
Michigan St. −33.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan St. >99%
Projected tempo
68.5
possessions
Site
Michigan St. home
<1%Win probability>99%
The model makes Michigan St. a 33.3-point favorite, winning more than 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Merrimack offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Merrimack O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.8#358 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 49.1#287 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 14.8#55 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 24.8#343 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 38.2#96 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 13.0#355 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 56.0#90 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 49.1#279 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 32.7#245 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 78.8#7 | FT% | — |
| 46.1#45 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Michigan St. offense vs Merrimack defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Merrimack D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #35863.8 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #1746.7 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #1720.4 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #36539.9 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #24037.1 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #1513.9 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #29856.9 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #3547.3 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #1330.3 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #35032.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Merrimack
| Mon, Nov 2 | N | Appalachian St.234 | L 49–63 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Siena271 | L 54–64 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Marist257 | W 58–57 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Sacred Heart310 | W 70–48 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Niagara318 | W 73–66 |
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
