Model line
Siena −4.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Siena 67%
Projected tempo
68.5
possessions
Site
Siena home
33%Win probability67%
The model makes Siena a 4.2-point favorite, winning about 67 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Merrimack offense vs Siena defense
| Merrimack O | Stat | Siena D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.8#358 | Tempo | #35164.2 |
| 49.1#287 | eFG% | #4948.5 |
| 14.8#55 | TOV% | #15617.0 |
| 24.8#343 | ORB% | #13329.5 |
| 38.2#96 | FT rate | #2827.5 |
| 13.0#355 | Block% | #1969.1 |
| 56.0#90 | Assist% | #7548.3 |
| 49.1#279 | 2P% | #5148.5 |
| 32.7#245 | 3P% | #8232.3 |
| 78.8#7 | FT% | — |
| 46.1#45 | 3PA rate | #18639.4 |
Siena offense vs Merrimack defense
| Siena O | Stat | Merrimack D |
|---|---|---|
| 64.2#351 | Tempo | #35863.8 |
| 50.4#221 | eFG% | #1746.7 |
| 15.8#125 | TOV% | #1720.4 |
| 31.8#132 | ORB% | #36539.9 |
| 33.4#226 | FT rate | #24037.1 |
| 9.5#189 | Block% | #1513.9 |
| 53.2#160 | Assist% | #29856.9 |
| 52.5#147 | 2P% | #3547.3 |
| 30.6#332 | 3P% | #1330.3 |
| 77.1#32 | FT% | — |
| 32.2#327 | 3PA rate | #35032.6 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Merrimack
| Mon, Nov 2 | N | Appalachian St.234 | L 49–63 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Siena271 | L 54–64 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Marist257 | W 58–57 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Sacred Heart310 | W 70–48 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Niagara318 | W 73–66 |
Siena
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Duke1 | L 65–71 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Merrimack211 | W 64–54 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Fairfield231 | W 76–61 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Mount St. Mary's299 | W 63–58 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Rider355 | W 76–61 |
