Model line
Merrimack −6.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Merrimack 75%
Projected tempo
68.8
possessions
Site
Merrimack home
25%Win probability75%
The model makes Merrimack a 6.4-point favorite, winning about 75 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Fairfield offense vs Merrimack defense
| Fairfield O | Stat | Merrimack D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.1#238 | Tempo | #35863.8 |
| 48.8#294 | eFG% | #1746.7 |
| 15.3#85 | TOV% | #1720.4 |
| 35.8#30 | ORB% | #36539.9 |
| 27.7#344 | FT rate | #24037.1 |
| 10.5#272 | Block% | #1513.9 |
| 45.2#331 | Assist% | #29856.9 |
| 48.2#302 | 2P% | #3547.3 |
| 33.2#215 | 3P% | #1330.3 |
| 70.5#254 | FT% | — |
| 35.4#263 | 3PA rate | #35032.6 |
Merrimack offense vs Fairfield defense
| Merrimack O | Stat | Fairfield D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.8#358 | Tempo | #23867.1 |
| 49.1#287 | eFG% | #15851.0 |
| 14.8#55 | TOV% | #16416.8 |
| 24.8#343 | ORB% | #11029.1 |
| 38.2#96 | FT rate | #7130.4 |
| 13.0#355 | Block% | #1719.4 |
| 56.0#90 | Assist% | #18552.6 |
| 49.1#279 | 2P% | #12950.8 |
| 32.7#245 | 3P% | #19834.3 |
| 78.8#7 | FT% | — |
| 46.1#45 | 3PA rate | #28735.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Fairfield
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Siena271 | L 61–76 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Saint Peter's298 | W 74–55 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Manhattan331 | W 71–60 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Mount St. Mary's299 | L 47–69 |
| Fri, Feb 27 | H | Siena271 | W 72–58 |
Merrimack
| Mon, Nov 2 | N | Appalachian St.234 | L 49–63 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Siena271 | L 54–64 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Marist257 | W 58–57 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Sacred Heart310 | W 70–48 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | A | Niagara318 | W 73–66 |
