Model line
Louisville −2.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Louisville 62%
Projected tempo
71.2
possessions
Site
Neutral
62%Win probability38%
The model makes Louisville a 2.9-point favorite, winning about 62 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Louisville offense vs Baylor defense
| Louisville O | Stat | Baylor D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#53 | Tempo | #10969.6 |
| 56.5#18 | eFG% | #23852.5 |
| 16.8#183 | TOV% | #21716.1 |
| 32.8#94 | ORB% | #26732.2 |
| 33.1#234 | FT rate | #6130.2 |
| 12.5#348 | Block% | #1549.7 |
| 59.6#37 | Assist% | #7348.3 |
| 59.4#12 | 2P% | #20352.2 |
| 36.0#58 | 3P% | #27835.5 |
| 76.1#49 | FT% | — |
| 52.9#4 | 3PA rate | #32334.7 |
Baylor offense vs Louisville defense
| Baylor O | Stat | Louisville D |
|---|---|---|
| 69.6#109 | Tempo | #5371.0 |
| 53.8#72 | eFG% | #5348.7 |
| 16.5#161 | TOV% | #17316.7 |
| 37.5#12 | ORB% | #5027.5 |
| 34.8#187 | FT rate | #13133.0 |
| 8.8#129 | Block% | #1889.1 |
| 53.3#156 | Assist% | #9549.3 |
| 55.2#53 | 2P% | #6248.9 |
| 34.5#147 | 3P% | #7632.3 |
| 73.3#158 | FT% | — |
| 39.6#180 | 3PA rate | #18039.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Louisville
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Michigan St.9 | L 69–77 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | South Florida92 | W 83–79 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Miami FL13 | L 73–78 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | SMU59 | W 62–58 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Miami FL13 | W 92–89 |
Baylor
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Oklahoma22 | L 69–82 |
| Wed, Apr 1 | N | Minnesota63 | W 67–48 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Arizona St.68 | L 79–83 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Utah88 | W 101–75 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Houston4 | L 64–77 |
