Model line
UCF −1.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
UCF 55%
Projected tempo
71.4
possessions
Site
UCF home
45%Win probability55%
The model makes UCF a 1.2-point favorite, winning about 55 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Iowa St. offense vs UCF defense
| Iowa St. O | Stat | UCF D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.5#172 | Tempo | #7570.6 |
| 56.6#15 | eFG% | #22152.1 |
| 15.0#61 | TOV% | #24215.7 |
| 35.8#32 | ORB% | #9728.8 |
| 34.1#204 | FT rate | #17734.9 |
| 9.9#230 | Block% | #2578.1 |
| 58.6#48 | Assist% | #14651.0 |
| 55.5#49 | 2P% | #23752.9 |
| 38.9#6 | 3P% | #17933.9 |
| 67.6#332 | FT% | — |
| 38.6#199 | 3PA rate | #18839.4 |
UCF offense vs Iowa St. defense
| UCF O | Stat | Iowa St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 70.6#75 | Tempo | #17268.5 |
| 52.6#124 | eFG% | #7849.4 |
| 16.0#143 | TOV% | #422.3 |
| 35.0#48 | ORB% | #7428.2 |
| 30.5#299 | FT rate | #3327.9 |
| 9.4#181 | Block% | #2118.7 |
| 53.7#144 | Assist% | #23654.4 |
| 51.7#185 | 2P% | #12150.6 |
| 36.2#50 | 3P% | #6131.9 |
| 72.9#173 | FT% | — |
| 34.8#280 | 3PA rate | #8742.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Iowa St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Tennessee11 | L 62–76 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Kentucky20 | W 82–63 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Tennessee St.204 | W 108–74 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Arizona5 | L 80–82 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Texas Tech12 | W 75–53 |
UCF
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | UCLA18 | L 71–75 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Arizona5 | L 59–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Cincinnati30 | W 66–65 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | A | West Virginia51 | L 62–77 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | H | Oklahoma St.52 | L 104–111 |
