Model line
Drake −4.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Drake 68%
Projected tempo
70.0
possessions
Site
Drake home
32%Win probability68%
The model makes Drake a 4.5-point favorite, winning about 68 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois St. offense vs Drake defense
| Illinois St. O | Stat | Drake D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#214 | Tempo | #21067.8 |
| 53.6#80 | eFG% | #24452.6 |
| 16.5#164 | TOV% | #31514.6 |
| 28.3#254 | ORB% | #15329.9 |
| 31.7#261 | FT rate | #10332.0 |
| 8.6#110 | Block% | #2268.5 |
| 51.1#215 | Assist% | #24654.8 |
| 54.5#72 | 2P% | #14651.1 |
| 34.9#127 | 3P% | #32036.4 |
| 70.8#245 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#116 | 3PA rate | #5643.3 |
Drake offense vs Illinois St. defense
| Drake O | Stat | Illinois St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.8#210 | Tempo | #21467.7 |
| 51.4#175 | eFG% | #8549.6 |
| 15.0#59 | TOV% | #20016.3 |
| 26.6#308 | ORB% | #1025.1 |
| 33.5#222 | FT rate | #11732.6 |
| 8.6#108 | Block% | #3396.1 |
| 51.6#198 | Assist% | #15951.6 |
| 51.7#182 | 2P% | #7849.5 |
| 34.0#170 | 3P% | #12533.1 |
| 71.4#224 | FT% | — |
| 45.7#52 | 3PA rate | #32134.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois St.
| Thu, Apr 2 | N | Auburn27 | L 66–88 |
| Wed, Mar 25 | A | Dayton67 | W 61–55 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | A | Wake Forest82 | W 78–75 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Kent St.126 | W 79–58 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Northern Iowa129 | L 52–74 |
Drake
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Illinois Chicago105 | L 51–72 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Belmont130 | W 100–79 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Southern Illinois172 | W 67–63 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Northern Iowa129 | L 53–75 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Valparaiso142 | L 71–74 |
