Model line
Valparaiso −4.4
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Valparaiso 68%
Projected tempo
69.5
possessions
Site
Valparaiso home
32%Win probability68%
The model makes Valparaiso a 4.4-point favorite, winning about 68 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois St. offense vs Valparaiso defense
| Illinois St. O | Stat | Valparaiso D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#214 | Tempo | #29366.1 |
| 53.6#80 | eFG% | #13050.5 |
| 16.5#164 | TOV% | #16316.9 |
| 28.3#254 | ORB% | #16930.1 |
| 31.7#261 | FT rate | #18235.1 |
| 8.6#110 | Block% | #14310.0 |
| 51.1#215 | Assist% | #10949.8 |
| 54.5#72 | 2P% | #19151.9 |
| 34.9#127 | 3P% | #6932.1 |
| 70.8#245 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#116 | 3PA rate | #26337.0 |
Valparaiso offense vs Illinois St. defense
| Valparaiso O | Stat | Illinois St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.1#293 | Tempo | #21467.7 |
| 47.6#325 | eFG% | #8549.6 |
| 15.7#117 | TOV% | #20016.3 |
| 32.5#109 | ORB% | #1025.1 |
| 39.1#80 | FT rate | #11732.6 |
| 8.5#106 | Block% | #3396.1 |
| 48.8#271 | Assist% | #15951.6 |
| 45.8#349 | 2P% | #7849.5 |
| 33.9#182 | 3P% | #12533.1 |
| 70.9#242 | FT% | — |
| 36.8#235 | 3PA rate | #32134.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois St.
| Thu, Apr 2 | N | Auburn27 | L 66–88 |
| Wed, Mar 25 | A | Dayton67 | W 61–55 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | A | Wake Forest82 | W 78–75 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Kent St.126 | W 79–58 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Northern Iowa129 | L 52–74 |
Valparaiso
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Bradley183 | L 84–90 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Indiana St.212 | W 63–62 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Evansville273 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Drake137 | W 74–71 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Illinois Chicago105 | W 71–67 |
