Model line
Valparaiso −6.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Valparaiso 76%
Projected tempo
69.4
possessions
Site
Valparaiso home
24%Win probability76%
The model makes Valparaiso a 6.8-point favorite, winning about 76 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Northern Iowa offense vs Valparaiso defense
| Northern Iowa O | Stat | Valparaiso D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.4#362 | Tempo | #29366.1 |
| 53.8#74 | eFG% | #13050.5 |
| 14.4#39 | TOV% | #16316.9 |
| 21.8#358 | ORB% | #16930.1 |
| 25.6#362 | FT rate | #18235.1 |
| 8.3#80 | Block% | #14310.0 |
| 56.6#77 | Assist% | #10949.8 |
| 54.9#61 | 2P% | #19151.9 |
| 34.7#139 | 3P% | #6932.1 |
| 69.2#293 | FT% | — |
| 39.1#189 | 3PA rate | #26337.0 |
Valparaiso offense vs Northern Iowa defense
| Valparaiso O | Stat | Northern Iowa D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.1#293 | Tempo | #36263.4 |
| 47.6#325 | eFG% | #3347.5 |
| 15.7#117 | TOV% | #9718.0 |
| 32.5#109 | ORB% | #2526.5 |
| 39.1#80 | FT rate | #5229.6 |
| 8.5#106 | Block% | #1519.8 |
| 48.8#271 | Assist% | #9249.2 |
| 45.8#349 | 2P% | #10750.2 |
| 33.9#182 | 3P% | #329.1 |
| 70.9#242 | FT% | — |
| 36.8#235 | 3PA rate | #9941.8 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Northern Iowa
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | St. John's25 | L 53–79 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Illinois Chicago105 | W 84–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Bradley183 | W 73–69 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Illinois St.116 | W 74–52 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Evansville273 | W 68–59 |
Valparaiso
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Bradley183 | L 84–90 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Indiana St.212 | W 63–62 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Evansville273 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Drake137 | W 74–71 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Illinois Chicago105 | W 71–67 |
