Model line
Northern Iowa −5.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Northern Iowa 72%
Projected tempo
69.3
possessions
Site
Northern Iowa home
28%Win probability72%
The model makes Northern Iowa a 5.5-point favorite, winning about 72 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois St. offense vs Northern Iowa defense
| Illinois St. O | Stat | Northern Iowa D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.7#214 | Tempo | #36263.4 |
| 53.6#80 | eFG% | #3347.5 |
| 16.5#164 | TOV% | #9718.0 |
| 28.3#254 | ORB% | #2526.5 |
| 31.7#261 | FT rate | #5229.6 |
| 8.6#110 | Block% | #1519.8 |
| 51.1#215 | Assist% | #9249.2 |
| 54.5#72 | 2P% | #10750.2 |
| 34.9#127 | 3P% | #329.1 |
| 70.8#245 | FT% | — |
| 42.9#116 | 3PA rate | #9941.8 |
Northern Iowa offense vs Illinois St. defense
| Northern Iowa O | Stat | Illinois St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.4#362 | Tempo | #21467.7 |
| 53.8#74 | eFG% | #8549.6 |
| 14.4#39 | TOV% | #20016.3 |
| 21.8#358 | ORB% | #1025.1 |
| 25.6#362 | FT rate | #11732.6 |
| 8.3#80 | Block% | #3396.1 |
| 56.6#77 | Assist% | #15951.6 |
| 54.9#61 | 2P% | #7849.5 |
| 34.7#139 | 3P% | #12533.1 |
| 69.2#293 | FT% | — |
| 39.1#189 | 3PA rate | #32134.9 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois St.
| Thu, Apr 2 | N | Auburn27 | L 66–88 |
| Wed, Mar 25 | A | Dayton67 | W 61–55 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | A | Wake Forest82 | W 78–75 |
| Wed, Mar 18 | H | Kent St.126 | W 79–58 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Northern Iowa129 | L 52–74 |
Northern Iowa
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | St. John's25 | L 53–79 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | N | Illinois Chicago105 | W 84–69 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | N | Bradley183 | W 73–69 |
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Illinois St.116 | W 74–52 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Evansville273 | W 68–59 |
