Model line
Valparaiso −12.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Valparaiso 91%
Projected tempo
70.0
possessions
Site
Valparaiso home
9%Win probability91%
The model makes Valparaiso a 12.8-point favorite, winning about 91 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Evansville offense vs Valparaiso defense
| Evansville O | Stat | Valparaiso D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.4#227 | Tempo | #29366.1 |
| 49.3#276 | eFG% | #13050.5 |
| 19.1#323 | TOV% | #16316.9 |
| 22.0#355 | ORB% | #16930.1 |
| 29.8#316 | FT rate | #18235.1 |
| 7.1#17 | Block% | #14310.0 |
| 54.3#132 | Assist% | #10949.8 |
| 49.9#256 | 2P% | #19151.9 |
| 32.2#268 | 3P% | #6932.1 |
| 73.6#147 | FT% | — |
| 43.1#111 | 3PA rate | #26337.0 |
Valparaiso offense vs Evansville defense
| Valparaiso O | Stat | Evansville D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.1#293 | Tempo | #22767.4 |
| 47.6#325 | eFG% | #33455.1 |
| 15.7#117 | TOV% | #25915.4 |
| 32.5#109 | ORB% | #17130.2 |
| 39.1#80 | FT rate | #9031.4 |
| 8.5#106 | Block% | #13510.0 |
| 48.8#271 | Assist% | #31858.0 |
| 45.8#349 | 2P% | #27754.0 |
| 33.9#182 | 3P% | #35137.6 |
| 70.9#242 | FT% | — |
| 36.8#235 | 3PA rate | #6243.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Evansville
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Northern Iowa129 | L 59–68 |
| Sun, Mar 1 | H | Southern Illinois172 | L 67–81 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Valparaiso142 | W 80–79 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | A | Belmont130 | L 64–98 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Murray St.97 | L 75–88 |
Valparaiso
| Fri, Mar 6 | N | Bradley183 | L 84–90 |
| Thu, Mar 5 | N | Indiana St.212 | W 63–62 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Evansville273 | L 79–80 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Drake137 | W 74–71 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Illinois Chicago105 | W 71–67 |
