Model line
Illinois −13.9
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 93%
Projected tempo
68.5
possessions
Site
Illinois home
7%Win probability93%
The model makes Illinois a 13.9-point favorite, winning about 93 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Iowa offense vs Illinois defense
| Iowa O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.1#363 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 56.3#20 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 15.2#81 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 30.6#177 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 35.3#171 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 8.3#73 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 57.4#65 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 58.5#16 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 35.5#91 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 77.0#34 | FT% | — |
| 41.9#135 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Illinois offense vs Iowa defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Iowa D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #36363.1 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #24552.6 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #1520.6 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #6928.1 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #27838.6 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #3256.6 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #14851.1 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #26853.8 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #16533.7 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #18539.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Iowa
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Illinois7 | L 59–71 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Nebraska19 | W 77–71 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Florida2 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Clemson44 | W 67–61 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Ohio St.26 | L 69–72 |
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
