Model line
Michigan St. −2.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan St. 60%
Projected tempo
69.2
possessions
Site
Northwestern home
60%Win probability40%
The model makes Michigan St. a 2.5-point favorite, winning about 60 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan St. offense vs Northwestern defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Northwestern D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #32265.3 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #16151.0 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #12217.5 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #33134.7 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #17234.8 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #10910.6 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #36063.8 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #17451.6 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #14433.4 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #15840.2 |
Northwestern offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Northwestern O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.3#322 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 51.7#164 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 13.0#7 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 28.1#263 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 33.9#213 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 6.4#9 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 65.8#5 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 52.9#133 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 33.0#230 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 75.1#77 | FT% | — |
| 34.0#295 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
Northwestern
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Purdue29 | L 68–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Indiana37 | W 74–61 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Penn St.90 | W 76–66 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Minnesota63 | L 66–67 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Purdue29 | L 66–70 |
