Model line
Michigan −1.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan 57%
Projected tempo
71.2
possessions
Site
Penn St. home
57%Win probability43%
The model makes Michigan a 1.6-point favorite, winning about 57 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan offense vs Penn St. defense
| Michigan O | Stat | Penn St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#41 | Tempo | #22367.5 |
| 58.7#6 | eFG% | #36358.4 |
| 16.5#165 | TOV% | #11417.7 |
| 35.0#47 | ORB% | #20831.1 |
| 37.7#109 | FT rate | #2727.5 |
| 9.0#145 | Block% | #3545.2 |
| 61.1#25 | Assist% | #33860.4 |
| 61.5#2 | 2P% | #35758.6 |
| 36.6#36 | 3P% | #36338.8 |
| 74.7#94 | FT% | — |
| 41.7#140 | 3PA rate | #5543.4 |
Penn St. offense vs Michigan defense
| Penn St. O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.5#223 | Tempo | #4171.3 |
| 53.0#105 | eFG% | #345.2 |
| 15.6#114 | TOV% | #26515.3 |
| 25.9#325 | ORB% | #4027.1 |
| 33.8#217 | FT rate | #1526.2 |
| 9.8#224 | Block% | #316.5 |
| 48.3#280 | Assist% | #5447.3 |
| 55.8#46 | 2P% | #444.5 |
| 32.4#263 | 3P% | #3130.8 |
| 75.0#83 | FT% | — |
| 38.1#214 | 3PA rate | #9242.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut3 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona5 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee11 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama16 | W 90–77 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 95–72 |
Penn St.
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Northwestern85 | L 66–76 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Rutgers75 | L 62–74 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Ohio St.26 | L 62–94 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Iowa41 | W 71–69 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Nebraska19 | L 64–87 |
