Model line
Minnesota −3.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Minnesota 65%
Projected tempo
69.4
possessions
Site
Minnesota home
36%Win probability65%
The model makes Minnesota a 3.5-point favorite, winning about 65 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan offense vs Minnesota defense
| Michigan O | Stat | Minnesota D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#41 | Tempo | #36563.0 |
| 58.7#6 | eFG% | #20551.9 |
| 16.5#165 | TOV% | #14217.1 |
| 35.0#47 | ORB% | #14929.8 |
| 37.7#109 | FT rate | #2527.3 |
| 9.0#145 | Block% | #2488.2 |
| 61.1#25 | Assist% | #34961.4 |
| 61.5#2 | 2P% | #17751.7 |
| 36.6#36 | 3P% | #22934.7 |
| 74.7#94 | FT% | — |
| 41.7#140 | 3PA rate | #10441.7 |
Minnesota offense vs Michigan defense
| Minnesota O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.0#365 | Tempo | #4171.3 |
| 54.2#63 | eFG% | #345.2 |
| 16.6#171 | TOV% | #26515.3 |
| 27.2#288 | ORB% | #4027.1 |
| 35.9#155 | FT rate | #1526.2 |
| 12.0#342 | Block% | #316.5 |
| 72.0#1 | Assist% | #5447.3 |
| 56.0#43 | 2P% | #444.5 |
| 34.8#130 | 3P% | #3130.8 |
| 70.0#274 | FT% | — |
| 47.1#31 | 3PA rate | #9242.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut3 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona5 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee11 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama16 | W 90–77 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 95–72 |
Minnesota
| Wed, Apr 1 | N | Baylor32 | L 48–67 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Rutgers75 | L 67–72 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Northwestern85 | W 67–66 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Indiana37 | L 47–77 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | UCLA18 | W 78–73 |
