Model line
Iowa −2.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Iowa 59%
Projected tempo
68.3
possessions
Site
Iowa home
41%Win probability59%
The model makes Iowa a 2.1-point favorite, winning about 59 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan St. offense vs Iowa defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Iowa D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #36363.1 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #24552.6 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #1520.6 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #6928.1 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #27838.6 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #3256.6 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #14851.1 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #26853.8 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #16533.7 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #18539.4 |
Iowa offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Iowa O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.1#363 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 56.3#20 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 15.2#81 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 30.6#177 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 35.3#171 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 8.3#73 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 57.4#65 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 58.5#16 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 35.5#91 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 77.0#34 | FT% | — |
| 41.9#135 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
Iowa
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Illinois7 | L 59–71 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Nebraska19 | W 77–71 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Florida2 | W 73–72 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Clemson44 | W 67–61 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Ohio St.26 | L 69–72 |
