Model line
USC −5.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
USC 72%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
USC home
28%Win probability72%
The model makes USC a 5.6-point favorite, winning about 72 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
UCLA offense vs USC defense
| UCLA O | Stat | USC D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.8#308 | Tempo | #5471.0 |
| 53.6#82 | eFG% | #8849.7 |
| 13.3#11 | TOV% | #20316.3 |
| 31.2#160 | ORB% | #27032.2 |
| 32.8#241 | FT rate | #13833.4 |
| 8.0#60 | Block% | #1214.9 |
| 58.9#45 | Assist% | #22854.1 |
| 51.8#178 | 2P% | #19852.0 |
| 37.9#20 | 3P% | #3430.9 |
| 76.6#40 | FT% | — |
| 35.7#255 | 3PA rate | #14840.4 |
USC offense vs UCLA defense
| USC O | Stat | UCLA D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#54 | Tempo | #30865.8 |
| 50.4#224 | eFG% | #12050.3 |
| 17.4#232 | TOV% | #8718.3 |
| 32.4#111 | ORB% | #30233.1 |
| 44.2#9 | FT rate | #15734.2 |
| 8.3#85 | Block% | #1489.9 |
| 56.5#81 | Assist% | #35863.1 |
| 51.8#179 | 2P% | #20252.1 |
| 31.7#299 | 3P% | #6632.0 |
| 72.6#183 | FT% | — |
| 34.1#292 | 3PA rate | #3744.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
UCLA
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Connecticut3 | L 57–73 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | UCF58 | W 75–71 |
| Sat, Mar 14 | N | Purdue29 | L 66–73 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | Michigan St.9 | W 88–84 |
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Rutgers75 | W 72–59 |
USC
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Washington78 | L 79–83 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | UCLA18 | L 68–89 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Washington78 | L 72–91 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Nebraska19 | L 67–82 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | UCLA18 | L 62–81 |
