Model line
Michigan −4.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan 68%
Projected tempo
70.5
possessions
Site
Michigan home
32%Win probability68%
The model makes Michigan a 4.5-point favorite, winning about 68 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan St. offense vs Michigan defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #4171.3 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #345.2 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #26515.3 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #4027.1 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #1526.2 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #316.5 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #5447.3 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #444.5 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #3130.8 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #9242.2 |
Michigan offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Michigan O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#41 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 58.7#6 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 16.5#165 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 35.0#47 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 37.7#109 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 9.0#145 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 61.1#25 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 61.5#2 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 36.6#36 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 74.7#94 | FT% | — |
| 41.7#140 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
Michigan
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut3 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona5 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee11 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama16 | W 90–77 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 95–72 |
