Model line
Purdue −4.2
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Purdue 67%
Projected tempo
69.3
possessions
Site
Purdue home
33%Win probability67%
The model makes Purdue a 4.2-point favorite, winning about 67 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois offense vs Purdue defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Purdue D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #32365.3 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #23152.3 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #25115.5 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #2226.3 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #825.4 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #1949.1 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #31157.8 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #24853.3 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #18334.0 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #3544.7 |
Purdue offense vs Illinois defense
| Purdue O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.3#323 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 58.1#10 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 13.6#17 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 36.8#19 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 28.3#339 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 6.7#14 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 66.5#4 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 58.4#18 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 38.5#13 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 74.1#128 | FT% | — |
| 40.8#151 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
Purdue
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Arizona5 | L 64–79 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Texas10 | W 79–77 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Miami FL13 | W 79–69 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Queens182 | W 104–71 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Michigan24 | W 80–72 |
