Model line
Illinois −1.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 57%
Projected tempo
70.0
possessions
Site
Neutral
57%Win probability43%
The model makes Illinois a 1.6-point favorite, winning about 57 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Michigan St. offense vs Illinois defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
