Model line
Michigan St. −10.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan St. 86%
Projected tempo
69.1
possessions
Site
Michigan St. home
14%Win probability86%
The model makes Michigan St. a 10.1-point favorite, winning about 86 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Purdue offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Purdue O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.3#323 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 58.1#10 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 13.6#17 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 36.8#19 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 28.3#339 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 6.7#14 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 66.5#4 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 58.4#18 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 38.5#13 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 74.1#128 | FT% | — |
| 40.8#151 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Michigan St. offense vs Purdue defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Purdue D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #32365.3 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #23152.3 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #25115.5 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #2226.3 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #825.4 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #1949.1 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #31157.8 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #24853.3 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #18334.0 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #3544.7 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Purdue
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Arizona5 | L 64–79 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Texas10 | W 79–77 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Miami FL13 | W 79–69 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Queens182 | W 104–71 |
| Sun, Mar 15 | N | Michigan24 | W 80–72 |
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
