Model line
Illinois −14.5
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 94%
Projected tempo
71.3
possessions
Site
Illinois home
6%Win probability94%
The model makes Illinois a 14.5-point favorite, winning about 94 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
USC offense vs Illinois defense
| USC O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#54 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 50.4#224 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 17.4#232 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 32.4#111 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 44.2#9 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 8.3#85 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 56.5#81 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 51.8#179 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 31.7#299 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 72.6#183 | FT% | — |
| 34.1#292 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Illinois offense vs USC defense
| Illinois O | Stat | USC D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #5471.0 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #8849.7 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #20316.3 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #27032.2 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #13833.4 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #1214.9 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #22854.1 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #19852.0 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #3430.9 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #14840.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
USC
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Washington78 | L 79–83 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | UCLA18 | L 68–89 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Washington78 | L 72–91 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Nebraska19 | L 67–82 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | UCLA18 | L 62–81 |
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
