Model line
Michigan St. −18.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan St. 97%
Projected tempo
70.4
possessions
Site
Michigan St. home
3%Win probability97%
The model makes Michigan St. a 18.1-point favorite, winning about 97 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Penn St. offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Penn St. O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.5#223 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 53.0#105 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 15.6#114 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 25.9#325 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 33.8#217 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 9.8#224 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 48.3#280 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 55.8#46 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 32.4#263 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 75.0#83 | FT% | — |
| 38.1#214 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Michigan St. offense vs Penn St. defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Penn St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #22367.5 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #36358.4 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #11417.7 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #20831.1 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #2727.5 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #3545.2 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #33860.4 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #35758.6 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #36338.8 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #5543.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Penn St.
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Northwestern85 | L 66–76 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Rutgers75 | L 62–74 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Ohio St.26 | L 62–94 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Iowa41 | W 71–69 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Nebraska19 | L 64–87 |
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
