Model line
USC −5.6
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
USC 72%
Projected tempo
71.8
possessions
Site
USC home
28%Win probability72%
The model makes USC a 5.6-point favorite, winning about 72 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan offense vs USC defense
| Michigan O | Stat | USC D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#41 | Tempo | #5471.0 |
| 58.7#6 | eFG% | #8849.7 |
| 16.5#165 | TOV% | #20316.3 |
| 35.0#47 | ORB% | #27032.2 |
| 37.7#109 | FT rate | #13833.4 |
| 9.0#145 | Block% | #1214.9 |
| 61.1#25 | Assist% | #22854.1 |
| 61.5#2 | 2P% | #19852.0 |
| 36.6#36 | 3P% | #3430.9 |
| 74.7#94 | FT% | — |
| 41.7#140 | 3PA rate | #14840.4 |
USC offense vs Michigan defense
| USC O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#54 | Tempo | #4171.3 |
| 50.4#224 | eFG% | #345.2 |
| 17.4#232 | TOV% | #26515.3 |
| 32.4#111 | ORB% | #4027.1 |
| 44.2#9 | FT rate | #1526.2 |
| 8.3#85 | Block% | #316.5 |
| 56.5#81 | Assist% | #5447.3 |
| 51.8#179 | 2P% | #444.5 |
| 31.7#299 | 3P% | #3130.8 |
| 72.6#183 | FT% | — |
| 34.1#292 | 3PA rate | #9242.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut3 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona5 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee11 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama16 | W 90–77 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 95–72 |
USC
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Washington78 | L 79–83 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | UCLA18 | L 68–89 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Washington78 | L 72–91 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Nebraska19 | L 67–82 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | UCLA18 | L 62–81 |
