Model line
Michigan St. −14.7
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan St. 94%
Projected tempo
70.2
possessions
Site
Michigan St. home
6%Win probability94%
The model makes Michigan St. a 14.7-point favorite, winning about 94 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Oregon offense vs Michigan St. defense
| Oregon O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5#270 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 49.5#266 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 17.6#247 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 32.3#113 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 35.0#181 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 9.5#188 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 59.0#43 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 50.5#237 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 32.1#277 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 73.0#170 | FT% | — |
| 42.8#120 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Michigan St. offense vs Oregon defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | Oregon D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #27066.5 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #15350.9 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #23915.7 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #27432.3 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #10532.0 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #5911.7 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #19952.9 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #16651.5 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #14633.4 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #9542.1 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Oregon
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Maryland46 | L 60–70 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Washington78 | W 85–79 |
| Tue, Mar 3 | A | Illinois7 | L 54–80 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | A | Northwestern85 | L 62–63 |
| Wed, Feb 25 | H | Wisconsin35 | W 85–71 |
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
