Model line
Illinois −1.0
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 54%
Projected tempo
70.6
possessions
Site
Maryland home
54%Win probability46%
The model makes Illinois a 1.0-point favorite, winning about 54 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois offense vs Maryland defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Maryland D |
|---|---|---|
| 75.4#47 | Tempo | #10571.7 |
| 66.9#13 | eFG% | #16454.7 |
| 9.3#4 | TOV% | #3325.1 |
| 55.0#5 | ORB% | #1518.8 |
| 19.3#215 | FT rate | #6626.4 |
| 12.5#166 | Block% | #527.3 |
| 65.2#57 | Assist% | #22773.9 |
| 84.4#1 | 2P% | #10950.0 |
| 37.3#73 | 3P% | #18638.7 |
| 56.3#204 | FT% | — |
| 61.4#6 | 3PA rate | #1458.5 |
Maryland offense vs Illinois defense
| Maryland O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.7#105 | Tempo | #4775.4 |
| 52.1#103 | eFG% | #832.0 |
| 18.1#119 | TOV% | #15715.9 |
| 63.6#1 | ORB% | #26.5 |
| 43.1#75 | FT rate | #2418.0 |
| 2.3#13 | Block% | #5914.3 |
| 32.4#226 | Assist% | #7447.1 |
| 61.4#57 | 2P% | #5242.9 |
| 25.0#181 | 3P% | #915.2 |
| 67.7#133 | FT% | — |
| 38.9#147 | 3PA rate | #2654.1 |
Team stats from the 2026–27 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois
| Mon, Nov 2 | H | Fairleigh Dickinson359 | W 120–45 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut5 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU63 | W 76–55 |
Maryland
| Mon, Nov 2 | H | Bucknell343 | W 96–67 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Iowa41 | L 64–75 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Oregon58 | W 70–60 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | H | Illinois2 | L 72–78 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Wisconsin48 | L 45–78 |
