Model line
Illinois −2.3
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 60%
Projected tempo
69.4
possessions
Site
Northwestern home
60%Win probability40%
The model makes Illinois a 2.3-point favorite, winning about 60 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois offense vs Northwestern defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Northwestern D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #32265.3 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #16151.0 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #12217.5 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #33134.7 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #17234.8 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #10910.6 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #36063.8 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #17451.6 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #14433.4 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #15840.2 |
Northwestern offense vs Illinois defense
| Northwestern O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.3#322 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 51.7#164 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 13.0#7 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 28.1#263 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 33.9#213 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 6.4#9 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 65.8#5 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 52.9#133 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 33.0#230 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 75.1#77 | FT% | — |
| 34.0#295 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
Northwestern
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Purdue29 | L 68–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Indiana37 | W 74–61 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Penn St.90 | W 76–66 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Minnesota63 | L 66–67 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Purdue29 | L 66–70 |
