Model line
USC −3.1
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
USC 63%
Projected tempo
71.0
possessions
Site
USC home
37%Win probability63%
The model makes USC a 3.1-point favorite, winning about 63 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Michigan St. offense vs USC defense
| Michigan St. O | Stat | USC D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0#246 | Tempo | #5471.0 |
| 54.1#67 | eFG% | #8849.7 |
| 17.2#218 | TOV% | #20316.3 |
| 37.9#9 | ORB% | #27032.2 |
| 36.0#151 | FT rate | #13833.4 |
| 8.0#58 | Block% | #1214.9 |
| 67.9#2 | Assist% | #22854.1 |
| 53.7#93 | 2P% | #19852.0 |
| 36.5#39 | 3P% | #3430.9 |
| 76.5#42 | FT% | — |
| 36.7#236 | 3PA rate | #14840.4 |
USC offense vs Michigan St. defense
| USC O | Stat | Michigan St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0#54 | Tempo | #24667.0 |
| 50.4#224 | eFG% | #5548.7 |
| 17.4#232 | TOV% | #29714.9 |
| 32.4#111 | ORB% | #122.5 |
| 44.2#9 | FT rate | #6530.2 |
| 8.3#85 | Block% | #1713.7 |
| 56.5#81 | Assist% | #29656.5 |
| 51.8#179 | 2P% | #4748.4 |
| 31.7#299 | 3P% | #10132.7 |
| 72.6#183 | FT% | — |
| 34.1#292 | 3PA rate | #2146.3 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Michigan St.
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Connecticut3 | L 63–67 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Louisville15 | W 77–69 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | North Dakota St.170 | W 92–67 |
| Fri, Mar 13 | N | UCLA18 | L 84–88 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Michigan24 | L 80–90 |
USC
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Washington78 | L 79–83 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | UCLA18 | L 68–89 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Washington78 | L 72–91 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Nebraska19 | L 67–82 |
| Tue, Feb 24 | A | UCLA18 | L 62–81 |
