Model line
Michigan −4.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan 69%
Projected tempo
69.8
possessions
Site
Michigan home
31%Win probability69%
The model makes Michigan a 4.8-point favorite, winning about 69 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Purdue offense vs Michigan defense
| Purdue O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 68.6#172 | Tempo | #9172.4 |
| 51.8#106 | eFG% | #1936.5 |
| 14.6#64 | TOV% | #7820.7 |
| 22.6#205 | ORB% | #22444.7 |
| 38.2#107 | FT rate | #19147.6 |
| 2.9#32 | Block% | #3716.2 |
| 65.4#54 | Assist% | #225.0 |
| 61.8#54 | 2P% | #2537.8 |
| 23.8#192 | 3P% | #4323.1 |
| 71.4#101 | FT% | — |
| 38.2#156 | 3PA rate | #11741.3 |
Michigan offense vs Purdue defense
| Michigan O | Stat | Purdue D |
|---|---|---|
| 72.4#91 | Tempo | #17268.6 |
| 48.6#140 | eFG% | #10749.1 |
| 12.4#25 | TOV% | #18214.6 |
| 41.0#38 | ORB% | #10729.4 |
| 28.2#165 | FT rate | #22864.2 |
| 2.7#24 | Block% | #1865.4 |
| 54.8#119 | Assist% | #18765.2 |
| 64.9#34 | 2P% | #6845.9 |
| 20.6#216 | 3P% | #17237.5 |
| 75.0#67 | FT% | — |
| 47.9#57 | 3PA rate | #21530.2 |
Team stats from the 2026–27 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Purdue
| Mon, Nov 2 | N | Gonzaga15 | L 72–78 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Arizona16 | L 64–79 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Texas6 | W 79–77 |
| Sun, Mar 22 | N | Miami FL23 | W 79–69 |
| Fri, Mar 20 | N | Queens170 | W 104–71 |
Michigan
| Mon, Nov 2 | H | Oakland202 | W 84–68 |
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut5 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona16 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee12 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama14 | W 90–77 |
