Model line
Michigan −15.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Michigan 95%
Projected tempo
70.0
possessions
Site
Michigan home
5%Win probability95%
The model makes Michigan a 15.8-point favorite, winning about 95 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Northwestern offense vs Michigan defense
| Northwestern O | Stat | Michigan D |
|---|---|---|
| 65.3#322 | Tempo | #4171.3 |
| 51.7#164 | eFG% | #345.2 |
| 13.0#7 | TOV% | #26515.3 |
| 28.1#263 | ORB% | #4027.1 |
| 33.9#213 | FT rate | #1526.2 |
| 6.4#9 | Block% | #316.5 |
| 65.8#5 | Assist% | #5447.3 |
| 52.9#133 | 2P% | #444.5 |
| 33.0#230 | 3P% | #3130.8 |
| 75.1#77 | FT% | — |
| 34.0#295 | 3PA rate | #9242.2 |
Michigan offense vs Northwestern defense
| Michigan O | Stat | Northwestern D |
|---|---|---|
| 71.3#41 | Tempo | #32265.3 |
| 58.7#6 | eFG% | #16151.0 |
| 16.5#165 | TOV% | #12217.5 |
| 35.0#47 | ORB% | #33134.7 |
| 37.7#109 | FT rate | #17234.8 |
| 9.0#145 | Block% | #10910.6 |
| 61.1#25 | Assist% | #36063.8 |
| 61.5#2 | 2P% | #17451.6 |
| 36.6#36 | 3P% | #14433.4 |
| 74.7#94 | FT% | — |
| 41.7#140 | 3PA rate | #15840.2 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Northwestern
| Thu, Mar 12 | N | Purdue29 | L 68–81 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Indiana37 | W 74–61 |
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Penn St.90 | W 76–66 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | A | Minnesota63 | L 66–67 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Purdue29 | L 66–70 |
Michigan
| Mon, Apr 6 | N | Connecticut3 | W 69–63 |
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Arizona5 | W 91–73 |
| Sun, Mar 29 | N | Tennessee11 | W 95–62 |
| Fri, Mar 27 | N | Alabama16 | W 90–77 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | Saint Louis60 | W 95–72 |
