Model line
Illinois −21.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 99%
Projected tempo
70.7
possessions
Site
Illinois home
1%Win probability99%
The model makes Illinois a 21.8-point favorite, winning about 99 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Penn St. offense vs Illinois defense
| Penn St. O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 67.5#223 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 53.0#105 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 15.6#114 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 25.9#325 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 33.8#217 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 9.8#224 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 48.3#280 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 55.8#46 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 32.4#263 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 75.0#83 | FT% | — |
| 38.1#214 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Illinois offense vs Penn St. defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Penn St. D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #22367.5 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #36358.4 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #11417.7 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #20831.1 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #2727.5 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #3545.2 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #33860.4 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #35758.6 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #36338.8 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #5543.4 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Penn St.
| Tue, Mar 10 | N | Northwestern85 | L 66–76 |
| Sun, Mar 8 | A | Rutgers75 | L 62–74 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | H | Ohio St.26 | L 62–94 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | Iowa41 | W 71–69 |
| Sat, Feb 21 | A | Nebraska19 | L 64–87 |
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
