Model line
Illinois −0.8
2026–27 college basketball / matchup
Win probability
Illinois 53%
Projected tempo
68.9
possessions
Site
Minnesota home
53%Win probability47%
The model makes Illinois a 0.8-point favorite, winning about 53 times in 100.
Offense vs defense
Each offense against the other team's defense. Small numbers are national ranks; the better rank in each row is bold.
Illinois offense vs Minnesota defense
| Illinois O | Stat | Minnesota D |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2#285 | Tempo | #36563.0 |
| 55.3#35 | eFG% | #20551.9 |
| 13.0#6 | TOV% | #14217.1 |
| 39.2#3 | ORB% | #14929.8 |
| 32.7#245 | FT rate | #2527.3 |
| 8.4#92 | Block% | #2488.2 |
| 50.9#219 | Assist% | #34961.4 |
| 58.1#20 | 2P% | #17751.7 |
| 35.0#114 | 3P% | #22934.7 |
| 78.4#13 | FT% | — |
| 50.4#15 | 3PA rate | #10441.7 |
Minnesota offense vs Illinois defense
| Minnesota O | Stat | Illinois D |
|---|---|---|
| 63.0#365 | Tempo | #28566.2 |
| 54.2#63 | eFG% | #3247.5 |
| 16.6#171 | TOV% | #36511.7 |
| 27.2#288 | ORB% | #3326.8 |
| 35.9#155 | FT rate | #119.7 |
| 12.0#342 | Block% | #3812.5 |
| 72.0#1 | Assist% | #13050.7 |
| 56.0#43 | 2P% | #4648.3 |
| 34.8#130 | 3P% | #3631.0 |
| 70.0#274 | FT% | — |
| 47.1#31 | 3PA rate | #8342.5 |
Team stats from the 2025–26 season, the same inputs the model uses for these ratings.
Last 5 games
H home · A away · N neutral site.
Illinois
| Sat, Apr 4 | N | Connecticut3 | L 62–71 |
| Sat, Mar 28 | N | Iowa41 | W 71–59 |
| Thu, Mar 26 | N | Houston4 | W 65–55 |
| Sat, Mar 21 | N | VCU53 | W 76–55 |
| Thu, Mar 19 | N | Penn123 | W 105–70 |
Minnesota
| Wed, Apr 1 | N | Baylor32 | L 48–67 |
| Wed, Mar 11 | N | Rutgers75 | L 67–72 |
| Sat, Mar 7 | H | Northwestern85 | W 67–66 |
| Wed, Mar 4 | A | Indiana37 | L 47–77 |
| Sat, Feb 28 | H | UCLA18 | W 78–73 |
